Where Education Did (and Didn’t) Matter In California’s Primary: Newsom & Cox Advance In Gubernatorial Race, Reformer Tuck Leads Thurmond For Superintendent

Where Education Did (and Didn’t) Matter in California’s Primary: Newsom & Cox Advance in Gubernatorial Race, Reformer Tuck Leads Thurmond for Superintendent

In California’s primary elections, Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom emerged as the clear frontrunner for governor, with businessman John Cox securing second place, setting the stage for a competitive blue-red contest in the general election. These results have significant implications for California public school students, as Marshall Tuck and state Assemblyman Tony Thurmond, both Democrats, claimed the top two spots in the nonpartisan race for state Superintendent of Public Instruction. Even though they belong to the same party, they will advance to the general election as per California’s primary rules.

Tuck, a leader in education reform who spearheaded turnaround efforts in Los Angeles schools, held a slight lead with 37 percent of the votes, while Thurmond trailed closely with 34 percent, with roughly half of the votes counted. The other two candidates, Lily E. Ploski, a former college administrator from Orange County, and Steven Ireland, an LA Unified parent and television producer, garnered 17 percent and 12 percent respectively.

A total of 27 names were on the gubernatorial ticket, and throughout the campaign, Gavin Newsom, a former San Francisco mayor and a favored candidate of the Democratic Party, dominated the polls with 34 percent. John Cox, a businessman from San Diego County who invested nearly $5 million in his campaign, secured a strong second place with 26 percent.

Former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa trailed far behind with 12 percent, in a major setback for his campaign. Republican Travis Allen received 10 percent of the votes, while state Treasurer John Chiang and former state superintendent Delaine Eastin secured 9 percent and 3 percent respectively.

During his "not a victory" speech, Newsom briefly addressed education, emphasizing the need to reinvest in the public education system and recognize teachers as heroes. He emphasized the word "public" while expressing gratitude for the enthusiastic applause from the crowd in San Francisco.

Villaraigosa conceded defeat just before 11 p.m., acknowledging that the gap was too wide to overcome. His senior campaign adviser, Mike Madrid, confirmed during Villaraigosa’s speech that due to a printing error, 118,000 voters were left off the rolls in Los Angeles County, impacting approximately 2.3 percent of the county’s voters, including Henry Winkler, known for his role as "The Fonz" in the 1970s sitcom Happy Days.

Absentee voters played a significant role in securing John Cox’s position in the runoff election. According to Public Data Inc.’s absentee vote tracker, 34 percent of the returned ballots came from Republicans, despite them constituting only 25 percent of the state’s registered voters. The strong Republican voter turnout helped Cox surpass Villaraigosa for the second spot. Moreover, voters from Northern California displayed greater reliability compared to those from Southern California, which benefited both Newsom and Thurmond, who are supported by teachers unions.

When the initial results were reported based on the absentee ballots, Newsom held 34 percent of the votes, followed by Cox with 26 percent and Villaraigosa with 11 percent. These figures remained relatively stable as the rest of the poll results were counted.

Villaraigosa’s defeat may be attributed to low Latino voter turnout, especially in Los Angeles, where he anticipated strong support. Los Angeles is home to over a third of the state’s Latino voters, and their turnout was notably low, with only one in ten mailed ballots returned. In comparison, the return rate among black registered voters was one in six.

At midnight, statewide turnout stood at 17 percent, while Los Angeles County reported a lower turnout of only 10 percent, although the county was slower to report poll results.

Over the years, primary election turnout in Los Angeles County has been gradually declining. In 2006, turnout was at 27 percent, which dropped to 24 percent in 2010, and further decreased to 17 percent in 2014.

Education reformers invested heavily in Villaraigosa’s campaign, as he supported charter schools. Outside groups contributed over $22 million in political advertising, but their efforts failed to secure a victory for their preferred candidate. Villaraigosa, who had previously run as the education candidate during his mayoral campaign in 2005, centered his election bid on education reforms.

The campaign advertisements from Newsom played a role in Cox’s victory and Villaraigosa’s downfall. Newsom was clear in expressing his preference to face Cox rather than Villaraigosa in the November election. Despite President Trump’s support for Cox, it is unlikely that he will have a strong chance in November, especially considering the dwindling number of registered Republicans compared to Democrats and unaffiliated voters in the state.

After conceding, Villaraigosa encouraged his supporters to vote for Newsom in November. However, it remains uncertain whether any of the gubernatorial candidates will focus on education like Villaraigosa did.

Ted Lempert, president of children’s advocacy organization Children Now, believes that if a Republican makes it to the runoff for governor or if one of the candidates for state superintendent wins outright in June, the dynamics of the race will change significantly. He anticipates that there will be less emphasis on children and education leading up to the November election.

Although recent polls show Cox widening his lead over Villaraigosa, Gary Borden, executive director of California Charter Schools Association Advocates, still expressed optimism that Villaraigosa would make it to the runoff. However, he also acknowledged that education issues would likely become less prominent if Cox maintained his lead.

Borden stated, "If for some reason Villaraigosa doesn’t make it to the runoff, and it becomes a Republican versus a Democrat, I think it takes away a lot of the interest in the governor’s race because Cox doesn’t really stand a chance against Newsom." He believes that, at that point, the contest will align with the national trend of hyper-partisanship, centered on support for or against Trump, and overshadow the real issues that Californians are concerned about.

The education factor in California’s primary is explored further in various articles linked below. These articles discuss the North-South divide in education politics, Antonio Villaraigosa’s track record on K-12 education, and the emergence of education as a key issue in the gubernatorial primary.

For more information about the impact of education in California’s primary, please click the links provided in the text.

Sign up for Newsletter to receive stories like these directly to your inbox.